Knowledge Library · forecast-methodology
Why do commit, best-case, and pipeline forecasts require different closing velocity assumptions?
Three Forecasts, Three Velocities
Direct: Commit assumes baseline closing rate. Best-case adds upside from acceleration. Pipeline counts everything. Each reflects different sales rhythm and deal maturity.
Operator Detail
Three separate forecasts aren't redundancy—they're signal clarity. Each answers a different question for the board.
Commit forecast — what's actually closing:
- Velocity: current stage close rate (85% for Negotiation, 95% for Commitment)
- Timeline: within current quarter
- Data: only deals with documented close date in this quarter, account executive confirmed close risk below 20%
- Formula: (Count of mature deals) × (Historical stage win rate) = $X
Best-case forecast — if everything breaks right:
- Velocity: optimistic stage close rate (85% for Proposal instead of 60%)
- Timeline: within quarter if urgency hits
- Data: Proposal-stage and above deals, no legal holds, buyer consensus documented
- Formula: Commit + (50% of Proposal-stage deals) + (20% of Qualification) = $Y
Pipeline forecast — all available opportunity:
- Velocity: minimum stage close rate (10% for Prospecting, 25% for Qualification)
- Timeline: next 2-4 quarters
- Data: every deal logged, standard weighting per stage
- Formula: Sum of (all deals × stage-specific win rates) = $Z
Why Three, Not One?
OpenView data shows boards demand specificity. Commit builds trust (conservative = credible). Best-case shows growth vector. Pipeline reveals capacity ahead. One number hides all three signals.
CRO Math
If Commit = $1.2M, Best-case = $1.8M, Pipeline = $2.5M:
- Board sees $1.2M locked (confidence builder)
- Board sees $600K upside if reps execute perfectly
- Board plans for $1.3M in Q3 (pipeline minus commit)
graph TD
A["Total Pipeline<br/>$2.5M<br/>All deals × stage rates"] --> B["Mature Deals<br/>Prop + Negotiation"] --> C["Commit<br/>$1.2M<br/>95% confidence"]
A --> D["Acceleration Upside<br/>High-signal proposals"] --> E["Best Case<br/>$1.8M<br/>70% confidence"]
A --> F["Early Stage<br/>Qual + Prospecting"] --> G["Future Pipeline<br/>$1.3M<br/>Next quarter"]
C --> H["Board Sees<br/>Conservative growth<br/>+ velocity"]
E --> H
G --> H
TAGS: forecast-methodology,commit-forecast,best-case,pipeline,velocity-modeling,board-reporting
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Sources cited
clari.comhttps://www.clari.com/gartner.comhttps://www.gartner.com/en/documents/sales-forecastingclari.comhttps://www.clari.com/blog/sales-pipeline-management/gong.iohttps://www.gong.io/blog/sales-pipeline/gartner.comhttps://www.gartner.com/en/sales/researchgong.iohttps://www.gong.io/Related in the library
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